[Morning Session] Repeating the Old Tune: Difficulties in Cutting Interest Rates

Regarding Gold:

Christine Lagarde,agea foreign exchange President of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated yesterday (July 2) that, due to the still robust employment market in the Eurozone and insufficient evidence that the inflation threat has passed, it is too early to declare victory. Her remarks heightened market expectations that the ECB might pause rate cuts this month.

On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned at the central bank forum held at the ECB headquarters in Brussels that the Fed has made significant progress on inflation but still needs to see more "good data." The Fed requires more confidence before deciding on policy rate cuts, fully recognizing the risks of acting too early or too late.

Powell’s repetitive stance indicates that a Fed rate cut might be challenging.

Technical Analysis: In the past three trading days, gold prices have entered a period of minimal volatility, indicating that a short-term direction is imminent. Technical indicators are also "ready to move." It is recommended to follow up once the short-term direction is established. For instance, follow up on a valid breakthrough above $2334 by going long.

Regarding Crude Oil:

Shipping giant Maersk recently stated that the coming months will remain challenging for shipping companies, with container transport through the Red Sea expected to remain difficult until at least the third quarter of this year. Previously, Maersk had "predicted" the Red Sea crisis, but the key issue lies in the Houthi armed blockade of the Red Sea route, with no clear timeline for resolution.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy recently announced the discovery of seven oil and gas fields in the country’s eastern province and desert areas. This significant discovery consolidates Saudi Arabia's position as the world's largest oil exporter. As a crucial supplier in the global energy market, Saudi Arabia’s continuous discovery and development of oil and gas resources will steadily drive the stability and growth of global energy supply.

Technical Analysis: Yesterday (July 2), oil prices surged and then fell, closing with a strong reversal K-line. The MACD also displayed a noticeable divergence above the zero axis, indicating that a short-term correction might be unavoidable. However, given the overall complete upward pattern, buying on dips remains the primary option.

【Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng Research for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.】

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.