Federal Reserve: Rate cuts require inflation to decrease, Trump's policies pose concerns.

In the early hours of February 20, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 2025 monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed that Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed that further interest rate cuts require additional declines in inflation. Although inflation has gradually eased, policies such as tariffs from the Trump administration continue to pose upward risks that could affect achieving inflation targets.

The minutes mentioned that Federal Reserve officials are concerned that Trump's trade policies might lead to rising input costs, thus driving up consumer prices, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Particularly, the ongoing impact of tariffs on business pricing pressure and subsequent price rises need further observation. Federal Reserve officials stated that their policy response would be adjusted based on whether the tariff impact is a one-off price increase or more profound inflationary pressure.

Furthermore, the minutes emphasized that the balance sheet reduction (QT) process might be influenced by debt ceiling issues, which could disturb bank reserve levels, especially when the Treasury rebuilds its cash reserves. Considering this, the Federal Reserve might slow or pause the balance sheet reduction to avoid adverse effects on the banking system.

Regarding employment, Federal Reserve officials noted that the labor market remains stable, with unemployment rates low. Although the inflation rate is still slightly above target, it has significantly eased over the past two years. For future inflation expectations, Federal Reserve officials believe that as monetary policy tightens gradually, inflation will continue to progress toward the 2% target, though there might be fluctuations.

Federal Reserve policymakers also stated that future monetary policy would depend on economic data and the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly the potential consequences of its tariff and immigration policies. The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting more evidence to assess these policies' economic impact.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson and San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly have also emphasized in recent speeches that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor future economic data and is not in a rush to implement further interest rate cuts, especially with the current slightly elevated inflation rate.

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