China's steel exports are set to stay high in 2025, heightening global trade friction risks.

According to the latest customs data,International Trading Platform China's steel exports in 2025 may continue to remain at a high level, with the annual export volume expected to exceed 100 million tons, marking the highest record since 2016. Despite the decline in domestic steel demand in China, export growth remains a key strategy to address overcapacity. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased by 21.2%, reaching 80.71 million tons, while steel production during the same period decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Nonetheless, China's position as the world's largest steel producer remains unshakeable.

Regarding global steel demand, the World Steel Association forecasts a slight increase of 1.2% in 2025, reaching 1.77 billion tons, following a three-year decline. However, China's domestic demand is expected to decline by 3% and 1% in 2023 and 2025, respectively. This indicates that Chinese steel manufacturers will increasingly rely on export markets to absorb domestic overcapacity in the coming years.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., China's largest publicly traded steel manufacturer, has recorded exports of 5.84 million tons in 2023, up by 46.6% year-on-year. The company plans to increase exports to 6 million tons in 2024 and aims for an annual export target of 10 million tons by 2028. Other top steel manufacturers also anticipate expanding exports in 2025, though specific plans have yet to be announced.

Meanwhile, as China's steel exports surge, trade tensions are mounting. Countries like Turkey and Indonesia have started imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products to protect their domestic industries. In 2023, trade remedy cases against Chinese steel surged to 28, significantly higher than the 8 cases in the previous three years.

Against the backdrop of the global economy, analysts noted that despite escalating trade disputes and uncertainty from currency fluctuations, Chinese steel remains strongly price competitive. The diversification of China's export markets, primarily focusing on regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America, may help alleviate trade tensions to some extent. In 2023, the total value of China's steel exports reached $85 billion, with less than 1% going to the United States. Nonetheless, the Biden administration has proposed elevating tariffs on Chinese steel products to protect the U.S. industry from competition.

Changes in the macroeconomic environment have profound impacts on the Chinese steel industry. Despite strong export performance, risks remain for future Chinese steel exports, particularly from domestic crackdowns on VAT evasion. Luo Tiejun, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Association, disclosed that the government has established a special task force to specifically address undeclared export activities, which accounted for one-third of total exports last year.

Looking ahead, the pace of global demand recovery, adjustments in trade policies across countries, and changes in domestic policies in China will be crucial factors influencing the direction of the steel industry.

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