Global Market: Technology vs. Commodities and Fed Policy Expectations

Last night,Aifure Chinese official website the US stock market experienced another dramatic fluctuation. Following the release of the US CPI data, market sentiment took a nosedive, and the stock market briefly plummeted. However, with multiple favorable news stimuli, the market quickly rebounded. The Nasdaq index, which opened with a drop of over 1%, ultimately closed up 2.17%, highlighting the market's remarkable activity.

Technology Stocks Shine, Jensen Huang Discusses Blackwell Chip

Technology stocks, led by Nvidia, were the driving force behind the market rebound, especially after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that their newly launched Blackwell chip is in extremely high demand globally. During the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference in San Francisco, Huang emphasized that the "accelerated computing sector holds trillion-dollar opportunities," and revealed that the excessive demand for Blackwell chips has led to severe supply shortages. This statement further propelled Nvidia's stock price upward and spurred a strong recovery in other technology stocks.

Additionally, photovoltaic, new energy, and other "Harris concept stocks" performed well. Growing global demand for clean energy, coupled with technological advancements and policy support, has made these sectors a hot spot for investors. Stocks in resources like lithium and uranium also saw gains due to positive external news, reflecting the market's optimistic outlook on future energy transitions.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectation Becomes Market Consensus

In terms of monetary policy, the market has broadly accepted the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next week. This expectation has been fully reflected in the recent market trends, with investors anticipating more significant rate cuts in the upcoming meeting. According to the "Fed Watch" tool, the swap market predicts that the Fed's rate cuts could total 100 basis points within the year, making the "dot plot" to be released next week highly anticipated.

Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer," recently stated in an article that although unexpected housing inflation prevents the Fed from making substantial rate cuts, the continued weakening of inflation data has paved the way for a gradual reduction in rates.

Commodity Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risks

Beyond the stock market, the global commodity market also experienced significant fluctuations due to external news stimuli. In a recent speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned the possibility of restricting the export of some strategic raw materials, such as uranium, titanium, and nickel. This news triggered a collective rise in global nickel and palladium futures, along with related mining stocks.

The international crude oil market was also unsettled. With Hurricane "Francine" hitting the main production area of the US Gulf of Mexico, leading to a halt in local crude oil production, international oil prices surged. The hurricane's short-term impact on energy supply has led investors to take a cautiously optimistic stance on further oil price increases.

Global Political Climate and Market Dynamics

Changes in the global political landscape have also influenced the market to some extent. President Biden drew widespread attention by donning a hat with the "Trump 2024" logo. White House spokesperson Andrew Bates later explained that this move was intended to call for unity between America's two political parties. Although this event is not directly related to financial markets, it somewhat reflects the complexity of the US political atmosphere.

In terms of geopolitics, Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, sounded air-raid sirens three times in a row, marking an escalation of regional tensions. This development could potentially impact global markets, particularly the European market and energy supply chains associated with the Ukraine conflict.

Capital Movements of Tech Startups like OpenAI

Meanwhile, the capital market for global tech startups remains highly active. According to insiders, OpenAI is seeking to raise $6.5 billion at a valuation of $150 billion, solidifying its position as one of the world's most valuable startups. This valuation is far higher than the company's $86 billion buyout offer earlier this year. Additionally, OpenAI plans to borrow $5 billion from banks through a revolving loan. This move indicates that leading companies in the AI sector are actively seeking financial support to further expand their technological edge and market share.

The global market is currently facing a multitude of influencing factors. From the strong performance of tech stocks to commodity market fluctuations and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies, all these factors combined create a complex market landscape. Investors need to closely monitor these dynamics and adjust their investment strategies to respond to potential risks and opportunities. Both technological innovation and changes in commodity supply will have profound impacts on the global economy.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.