The Fed's "Beige Book" forecasts rising prices and moderate growth in 2025.

On January 15, local time, the Federal Reserve released its latest report on the national economic conditions, colloquially known as the "Beige Book." The report indicated that from late November to December 2024, the economic activity across the 12 Federal Reserve districts in the United States showed slight to moderate growth.

Consumer and Industry Performance
Consumer spending was robust during the holiday season, with actual sales exceeding expectations, leading to a slight rise in automobile sales. However, construction activities were under pressure due to high material and financing costs, leading to an overall decline. The manufacturing sector experienced a slight contraction, with manufacturers in several regions stockpiling inventory in anticipation of possible future tariff hikes.

Residential real estate activity remained unchanged; high mortgage rates continued to suppress housing demand, but commercial real estate sales saw slight improvement. The non-financial services sector experienced a slight increase, with leisure, hospitality, and air transport performing exceptionally well, although truck freight volume declined. In the financial services industry, loan demand slightly increased, and overall asset quality remained stable.

The situation in agriculture and energy sectors is complex. Agriculture faced challenges due to climate issues and lower farmer incomes, resulting in a weaker landscape, while energy activities showed significant variations across different regions.

Labor Market and Price Trends
The job market continued to grow, particularly in service industries such as healthcare, although labor cost pressures persisted. Price levels overall saw a slight rise during this period, with most regions experiencing moderate growth in sales prices. The report specifically noted that U.S. prices are expected to rise in 2025, potentially placing greater cost pressures on the overall economic environment.

Policy and Risks
Some regions expressed concerns about the potential negative impacts of immigration policy and tariff adjustments. Additionally, the high demand for nonprofit social services and the uncertainty surrounding future funding sources have raised alarms.

Introduction to the "Beige Book"
The "Beige Book" is a regular economic outlook survey report published by the Federal Reserve, summarizing the economic activities of the 12 Federal Reserve districts and providing a comprehensive analysis of national economic conditions. This report serves as an important reference for Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings and is a key window into understanding the current state and future trends of the U.S. economy.

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